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Moving water off land has preoccupied southwest Minnesotans since settlers arrived in the 1800s.

However, some scientists believe that getting enough water to grow crops is likely to plague local farmers of the future, said Thomas Dilley, assistant professor in the environmental science program at Southwest State University (SSU) in Marshall. They also predict a warmer climate.

Climatic changes, which alter Earth, occur naturally, in cycles, and are connected to levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The causes and consequences of rising carbon dioxide levels are complex and global, but a growing consensus finds humans largely responsible, Dilley said.

"The question is, are we changing the climate enough that we're kicking out the natural cycles of warming and cooling and essentially ending the ice ages for a long period of time because we're putting so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere?" Dilley said.

Scientists estimate the Earth's climate will rise anywhere from a couple of degrees centigrade, to more than five. Southwest Minnesota's climate could rise two degrees by 2050, Dilley said.

"This difference between full glacial and full interglacial is four, to eight degrees centigrade for the mean angle temperature of the planet," Dilley said. "So, you go from having big ice sheets to warm like today with this amount of change. Exactly what this climate change means on a local level, that's the million dollar question."

Globally, rising sea levels could swallow small islands and destroy vast numbers of buildings and infrastructure built, without foresight, near shorelines, Dilley said. Taxes would rise significantly as a result.

"We grew up with this bad notion that the planet is going to stay the same way, and we built all this infrastructure around it, and now it's changing," Dilley said.

Locally, droughts and hot temperatures could inhibit crop production, Dilley said.

"We're already on the edge," Dilley said. "If you go farther west, you have to start irrigating. No one can tell you for sure what's going to happen, but the models are that irrigation is a distinct possibility in the future."

Then again, technological advances could change everything for the better, just as conditions are changing now, in some cases for the worse, as a result of former advances, Dilley said.

Although the planet was cooling down just before the industrial revolution, advancing glaciers have since receded and sea levels have risen, along with a 32 percent increase in carbon dioxide levels, Dilley said. Based on current trends, carbon dioxide levels will double in 100 years.

The use of fossil fuels is largely to blame, Dilley said. For instance, a single gallon of gasoline releases 20 pounds of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

More than six billion people inhabit the planet, and the numbers increase by 100 million annually, Dilley said. At this rate, the global population will double in about 40 years. As the population increases, so does consumption of fossil fuels.

Many scientists believe some of nature's best defenses against excess carbon dioxide rest in the oceans, and great amounts of money is spent on research, Dilley said.

More also could be done with soils, said Neal Eash, assistant professor in the agronomy program at SSU.

"We ought to be working doing what we can to build carbon levels in soil," Eash said. "If we turn soils into a sink for carbon dioxide, we can decrease atmospheric carbon dioxide just by tying it up with soils."

Extra carbon dioxide means plants work less, producing greater yields, Eash said. Then again, plants shut down when it gets too hot.

Tying government subsidies to such things as farmers maintaining ground cover and the judicious use of nitrogen would help, Eash said. However, the government tends to react, rather than act, he said.

"If we were going to plan ahead, we'd have a better energy policy," Eash said. "Gas right now wouldn't be $1.15 a gallon, it would be $3.15 a gallon. We wouldn't have Navigators and Expeditions. We'd have little Mazdas, little cars that would do better on gas. It's remarkable to me that farmers are having the foresight to do some really good stuff with conservation."

Based on scientists' predictions, southwest Minnesota's climate likely will move north, Eash said.

"You'll see the corn belt move up into Canada. The corn belt seems to be moving farther north all the time," Eash said. "What we'll see is the Kansas wheat move into here."

Irrigation is an unlikely option, though, because of the nation's demand for low-cost food, Eash said. Additionally, millions of acres around the world no longer are irrigated because it leaves salt in the soil, eroding output. Water availability also is problematic.

"If we get to irrigation here, then the assumption would be that we'd have to have a high value crop," Eash said. "The numbers aren't there now. It would be if we had $200, $400 an acre for land. But we've got $1,200, $1,500, $2,000 for an acre of land.

"If it comes to irrigation here, it's going to be all pastures, and then we'll lose, probably, what little infrastructure we have left. It's going to look like Wyoming. We're going to see a farm every 30 miles instead of Tracy or Marshall every 30 miles."

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